Reflecting on my experiences, I've come to realize the importance of a credible theory of change when it comes to convincing others that a grand vision is indeed achievable. As someone who often pens down optimistic visions for the future of the internet and society, I've learned that painting a picture of a future without a clear pathway often leads to skepticism and dismissal. People tend to label you as another unrealistic dreamer, another idealist who has no clue how to transform their vision into reality.
In the past, I may have been one of those visionaries, and sometimes I still find myself falling into that pattern. But over time, I've understood that the beauty of the future isn't enough. Without a clear plan outlining how we'll navigate from our current situation (point A) to that desirable future (point B), our visions may be as good as useless.
This is where the theory of change steps in. In its simplest form, it's a believable explanation of how your effort and energy at point A will spur changes, creating a ripple effect, leading to the next phase, and then the next, until we finally reach our goal at point B.
The process isn't a sudden leap but a series of believable steps. The first step has to be convincingly achievable for people to act. To illustrate, let me share the example of my friend Elliott who is building an organization called Global Unity. His vision is to persuade a million people to donate a dollar a month, generating a steady stream of a million dollars a month that advances the organization’s mission. Sounds great, right? But how do we get there?
The key lies in a basic unit of momentum, a ripple effect that begins with a partnership formed due to the existence and intentional activities of Global Unity. It's about showing how Global Unity is exponentially increasing the efficiency of finding impactful partners. This forms the core of a theory of change, a flywheel that starts spinning as more and more people join, donate, and bring their friends onboard.
Imagine the impactful organizations, becoming more effective because of these partnerships, giving back 1% of their revenue to Global Unity. But why would they do that? The answer is simple: they feel a deep sense of gratitude towards Global Unity for enabling their success and want to pay it forward.
For Elliott, in explaining to potential investors or stakeholders how to reach a million donors in the future, it's not about, or at least not just about the money. It's about demonstrating the magical connections being formed, the evangelism growing for Global Unity, and the multiplication of impact through their investment.
In conclusion, every impactful organization needs to identify their basic unit of momentum, the force that propels them towards their grand vision of the future. It's this mechanism, this flywheel that makes the vision believable and investable to people. If you can't make that evident, why would anyone invest or believe in your grand vision? Without a credible theory of change, a vision, no matter how grand, is just a castle in the sky.